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Kelly Criterion Calculator
Calculate the mathematically optimal position size using the Kelly Criterion formula. Maximize long-term capital growth while managing risk.
🎯 Kelly Criterion Calculator
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What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula developed by John L. Kelly Jr. that calculates the optimal percentage of capital to risk per trade to maximize long-term wealth growth.
Kelly Formula
Kelly % = (Win Rate × RR – (1 – Win Rate)) / RR
Half Kelly — The Practical Approach
Most professional traders use Half Kelly (50% of the calculated percentage) to reduce volatility while still capturing most of the growth benefit.
Frequently Asked Questions
Kelly requires a positive expected value. For a 1:1 R:R, you need >50% win rate. For 1:2 R:R, you need >33% win rate.
Full Kelly can be aggressive. Most traders use Quarter Kelly (25%) to Half Kelly (50%) for a safer approach that still grows capital efficiently.
Track at least 50-100 trades in a trading journal. SignalFX Book (our free tool) automatically calculates your win rate from your trade history.
The Secret Indicator is designed for high-probability setups. Many users report win rates of 60-70%+ which produces excellent Kelly percentages.